Air Travel Forecast to 2040

Our air traffic forecast is a comprehensive, forward-looking tool that incorporates macroeconomic growth, disposable income trends, and fuel costs. Extending to 2040, the forecast reflects the growing importance of strategic planning in an industry increasingly shaped by sustainability goals, market forces, and an emerging multipolar geopolitical landscape.

The ongoing Persian Gulf conflict has introduced significant uncertainty into the near- and medium-term demand outlook. We are adjusting the frequency of our updates in response.

Key findings

Airline demand is facing sudden, simultaneous risks. On the supply side, costs have risen sharply through the combination of higher oil prices and tighter fuel-refining margins. Inevitably these costs are passed to consumers to some degree. As for demand, inflation and higher interest rates are already reducing disposable income in the short term. In the medium term, there is a broad consensus that, if the conflict continues, fertilizer supply chain issues will lead to food cost inflation. The speed of these initial changes is forcing simultaneous shifts in both supply and demand, rather than the slower, phased adjustments we typically see.

Demand scenario descriptions

We have developed two scenarios for how demand may evolve under different conflict trajectories—“gradual return” and “prolonged impact.” We will continue to assess their validity and the need for additional scenarios. 

Gradual return: Regional tensions persist longer, with full airport recovery by early 2027 and sustained economic headwinds tapering out in 2028. Fare increases take approximately 18 months to unwind.

Prolonged impact: An extended conflict delays full airport operations until mid- to late 2027 and suppresses economic growth, with effects lingering to 2029. A significant structural pricing increase occurs over the medium term, normalizing over 30 months.

Demand impacts

In both scenarios, global demand in 2030 remains below the pre-conflict baseline.

• Under the baseline forecast established prior to the conflict, global revenue passenger kilometers were projected to reach 138% of 2019 levels by 2030. The revised scenarios now range from 129% (prolonged impact) to 132% (gradual return), a gap of 6 to 9 percentage points vs. baseline by decade’s end.
• Cumulative demand loss from 2026 through 2030 varies considerably by scenario. Gradual return implies approximately 5% less traffic over the five-year period relative to baseline; prolonged impact results in roughly 7% cumulative demand erosion, equivalent to nearly half a year of global traffic.

Regional and corridor impacts

While the scenarios above reflect global aggregates, the effects will be most pronounced on routes touching the Gulf region and adjacent markets. Europe–Asia corridors face elevated uncertainty due to rerouting requirements and fuel-cost exposure.

Model limitations

Our model assumes that demand will find supply—an assumption that may not hold for certain routes over short periods. The model may not fully capture local supply shocks, currently driven by airport closures, jet fuel constraints, and proactive schedule reductions.

Projected market and financial information, analyses, and conclusions are based (unless sourced otherwise) on external information and Bain & Company’s judgment. They are intended as a guide only and should not be construed as definitive forecasts or guarantees of future performance or results. No responsibility or liability whatsoever is accepted by any person, including Bain & Company, Inc., or its affiliates and their respective officers, employees, or agents, for any errors or omissions.

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