Infographic

2025 Holiday Shopping Outlook

Bain forecasts healthy but below-average 4.0% growth in US retail sales this holiday. Four actions can help retailers stand out to shoppers.

By Kurt Grichel, Aaron Cheris, Darrell Rigby, and Stephanie Koszyk

  • Published on September 09, 2025

Infographic

2025 Holiday Shopping Outlook
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  • Notes

    Holiday season is November and December only. Sales forecasts are year-over-year nominal growth. Ten-year average is average of growth rates from 2015 to 2024. Bain defines US retail sales as unadjusted in-store and nonstore (e-commerce and mail order) sales, excluding sales by auto and auto parts dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.

    Historical sales and forecast for Bain-defined retail sales are not seasonally adjusted.

    The authors would like to acknowledge Anshula Batra, Megha Dasgupta, Sakshi Goyal, Himanshi H, Liz Vargo, and Sanket Anil Waghmare for their contributions.

Authors
  • Headshot of Kurt Grichel
    Partner, Seattle
  • Headshot of Aaron Cheris
    Partner, San Francisco
  • Headshot of Darrell Rigby
    Partner, Boston
  • Headshot of Stephanie Koszyk
    Practice Vice President, Dallas
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