US Consumer Health Update

Business operators and members of the press can access the full US Consumer Health Indexes monthly report and data on our newly-launched US Consumer Health Indexes site.

• Over the past six months, the US consumer has avoided a meaningful collapse, but broad strength remains elusive. Upper-income households ($100K+) are experiencing improvements in their outlook and spending behaviors, while lower- ($0–50K) and middle-income ($50K–100K) households continue to report signs of pressure. The result is an uneven experience across the income spectrum, with demand support becoming more concentrated at the upper end.
• September data provides additional evidence that upper-income consumers are growing more optimistic. The CHI composite outlook measure ticked up this month, driven primarily by modestly improving outlooks among lower- and upper-income households. All four of our measures for upper-income earners suggest that a rebound began around April or May, with each measure pointing to a more optimistic upper-income consumer.
• This marks an important shift in the consumer picture, particularly given the outsized role that upper-income households play in overall spending. That said, much of this optimism appears to be tied to continued robust investment portfolio performance, so clients should remain mindful that this strength could fade if markets weaken.
• Lower-income spending intent declined notably this month, a shift that we highlight due to its magnitude. However, we do not currently view this data point as cause for significant alarm because the lower-income outlook score—which measures this group's expectations for their income in the short term—actually improved in September.

You can access our full US Consumer Health Indexes monthly reports and data on our newly-launched US Consumer Health Indexes site.

Bain and Dynata created the Consumer Health Indexes in 2017 to support business decision makers in their near- and midterm planning for their businesses. To achieve this, we have been asking questions that are within the expertise of the people taking our surveys. What are their personal spending plans? What are their saving plans? What is their use-of-debt plan? These are direct, easily understandable questions about survey respondents’ near-term expected behaviors. They require little interpretation, macroeconomic expertise, or filtering through the lens of the political or news cycle. Since 2017, our clients have been using our Consumer Health Indexes as a differentiated data point relative to existing confidence indicators. 

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